causality

Report for Alexander Borisov

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 Performance as a function of the number of features

Figure 1: Performance as a function of the number of features. (Click to enlarge). Legend: red: REGED, green: SIDO, blue: CINA, black: MARTI. circle: version 1 (unmanipulated test set), full circle: version 2 (manipulated), star: version 3 (manipulated)

 Profile of features selected

Figure 2: Profile of features selected. (Click to enlarge). Legend: dcause=direct cause, deffect=direct effects, ocauses=other causes (indirect), oeffects=other effects (indirect), spouses=parent of a direct effect, orelatives=other relatives, unrelated=completely irrelevant

 Tscore performance of all entries

Figure 3: Tscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

 Fscore performance of all entries

Figure 4: Fscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

Performances:

Fnum=number of features (*=sorted list, **=table of results. Fnum given for best Tscore if table of results submitted), Fscore=MB AUC, Tscore=AUC of test predictions; Top Ts=best score among all valid last entries made by participants. Max Ts=best score reachable, including reference entries using the knowledge of true causal relationships not available to participants.
* Entry Method Fnum Fscore Tscore (Ts) Top Ts Max Ts <Tscore> Rank
REGED0 171 ACE+GBT 512/999 ** 0.6969 0.99960.0009 1.0000 1.0000
REGED1 171 ACE+GBT 512/999 ** 0.6838 0.90950.0038 0.9980 0.9980 0.8331 11
REGED2 171 ACE+GBT 8/999 ** 0.9107 0.59020.0059 0.8600 0.9534
SIDO0 171 ACE+GBT 256/4932 ** 0.4653 0.93370.0076 0.9443 0.9467
SIDO1 171 ACE+GBT 2048/4932 ** 0.4680 0.69080.0136 0.7532 0.7893 0.7333 9
SIDO2 171 ACE+GBT 4932/4932 ** 0.4680 0.57560.0130 0.6684 0.7674
CINA0 171 ACE+GBT 64/132 ** 0.6312 0.97550.0029 0.9788 0.9788
CINA1 171 ACE+GBT 64/132 ** 0.6085 0.82360.0048 0.8977 0.8977 0.8328 5
CINA2 171 ACE+GBT 64/132 ** 0.6085 0.69930.0043 0.8157 0.8910
MARTI0 171 ACE+GBT 512/1024 ** 0.4841 0.88720.0050 0.9996 0.9996
MARTI1 171 ACE+GBT 32/1024 ** 0.5188 0.70050.0061 0.9470 0.9542 0.7638 8
MARTI2 171 ACE+GBT 128/1024 ** 0.5998 0.70360.0063 0.7975 0.8273

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