causality

Report for Alexey Polovinkin

Download Fact sheet

 Performance as a function of the number of features

Figure 1: Performance as a function of the number of features. (Click to enlarge). Legend: red: REGED, green: SIDO, blue: CINA, black: MARTI. circle: version 1 (unmanipulated test set), full circle: version 2 (manipulated), star: version 3 (manipulated)

 Profile of features selected

Figure 2: Profile of features selected. (Click to enlarge). Legend: dcause=direct cause, deffect=direct effects, ocauses=other causes (indirect), oeffects=other effects (indirect), spouses=parent of a direct effect, orelatives=other relatives, unrelated=completely irrelevant

 Tscore performance of all entries

Figure 3: Tscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

 Fscore performance of all entries

Figure 4: Fscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

Performances:

Fnum=number of features (*=sorted list, **=table of results. Fnum given for best Tscore if table of results submitted), Fscore=MB AUC, Tscore=AUC of test predictions; Top Ts=best score among all valid last entries made by participants. Max Ts=best score reachable, including reference entries using the knowledge of true causal relationships not available to participants.
* Entry Method Fnum Fscore Tscore (Ts) Top Ts Max Ts <Tscore> Rank
REGED0 948 FS 512/999 ** 0.8011 0.99500.0009 1.0000 1.0000
REGED1 948 FS 512/999 ** 0.6319 0.79900.0057 0.9980 0.9980 0.7694
REGED2 948 FS 256/999 ** 0.7111 0.51420.0033 0.8600 0.9534
SIDO0 948 FS 4096/4932 ** 0.4672 0.90170.0079 0.9443 0.9467
SIDO1 948 FS 256/4932 ** 0.4573 0.53670.0097 0.7532 0.7893 0.6326
SIDO2 948 FS 16/4932 ** 0.4573 0.45950.0056 0.6684 0.7674
CINA0 948 FS 64/132 ** 0.6675 0.93130.0031 0.9788 0.9788
CINA1 948 FS 64/132 ** 0.7177 0.71740.0053 0.8977 0.8977 0.7404
CINA2 948 FS 64/132 ** 0.7177 0.57240.0052 0.8157 0.8910
MARTI0 718 MB estimation 1024/1024 ** 0.4414 0.84530.0028 0.9996 0.9996
MARTI1 718 MB estimation 64/1024 ** 0.4302 0.69410.0033 0.9470 0.9542 0.7317
MARTI2 718 MB estimation 1024/1024 ** 0.8752 0.65560.0063 0.7975 0.8273

Return to Causation and Predition Challenge Analysis