causality

Report for E. Mwebaze & J. Quinn

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 Performance as a function of the number of features

Figure 1: Performance as a function of the number of features. (Click to enlarge). Legend: red: REGED, green: SIDO, blue: CINA, black: MARTI. circle: version 1 (unmanipulated test set), full circle: version 2 (manipulated), star: version 3 (manipulated)

 Profile of features selected

Figure 2: Profile of features selected. (Click to enlarge). Legend: dcause=direct cause, deffect=direct effects, ocauses=other causes (indirect), oeffects=other effects (indirect), spouses=parent of a direct effect, orelatives=other relatives, unrelated=completely irrelevant

 Tscore performance of all entries

Figure 3: Tscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

 Fscore performance of all entries

Figure 4: Fscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

Performances:

Fnum=number of features (*=sorted list, **=table of results. Fnum given for best Tscore if table of results submitted), Fscore=MB AUC, Tscore=AUC of test predictions; Top Ts=best score among all valid last entries made by participants. Max Ts=best score reachable, including reference entries using the knowledge of true causal relationships not available to participants.
* Entry Method Fnum Fscore Tscore (Ts) Top Ts Max Ts <Tscore> Rank
REGED0 1444 submission 14/999 ** 0.8088 0.99330.0014 1.0000 1.0000
REGED1 1444 submission 1/999 ** 0.7122 0.95280.0028 0.9980 0.9980 0.8559 9
REGED2 1444 submission 14/999 ** 0.9935 0.62160.0019 0.8600 0.9534
SIDO0 1444 submission 10/4932 ** 0.5003 0.93250.0074 0.9443 0.9467
SIDO1 1444 submission 6/4932 ** 0.5009 0.66600.0133 0.7532 0.7893 0.7509 7
SIDO2 1444 submission 6/4932 ** 0.5009 0.65410.0131 0.6684 0.7674
CINA0 1444 submission 8/132 ** 0.7575 0.94300.0033 0.9788 0.9788
CINA1 1444 submission 46/132 ** 0.5885 0.73810.0047 0.8977 0.8977 0.7832 8
CINA2 1444 submission 8/132 ** 0.5235 0.66850.0042 0.8157 0.8910

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