causality

Report for Yin-Wen Chang

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 Performance as a function of the number of features

Figure 1: Performance as a function of the number of features. (Click to enlarge). Legend: red: REGED, green: SIDO, blue: CINA, black: MARTI. circle: version 1 (unmanipulated test set), full circle: version 2 (manipulated), star: version 3 (manipulated)

 Profile of features selected

Figure 2: Profile of features selected. (Click to enlarge). Legend: dcause=direct cause, deffect=direct effects, ocauses=other causes (indirect), oeffects=other effects (indirect), spouses=parent of a direct effect, orelatives=other relatives, unrelated=completely irrelevant

 Tscore performance of all entries

Figure 3: Tscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

 Fscore performance of all entries

Figure 4: Fscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

Performances:

Fnum=number of features (*=sorted list, **=table of results. Fnum given for best Tscore if table of results submitted), Fscore=MB AUC, Tscore=AUC of test predictions; Top Ts=best score among all valid last entries made by participants. Max Ts=best score reachable, including reference entries using the knowledge of true causal relationships not available to participants.
* Entry Method Fnum Fscore Tscore (Ts) Top Ts Max Ts <Tscore> Rank
REGED0 1452 final submission 16/999 ** 0.8526 0.99980.0009 1.0000 1.0000
REGED1 1452 final submission 16/999 ** 0.8566 0.95560.0040 0.9980 0.9980 0.9316 1
REGED2 1452 final submission 8/999 ** 0.9970 0.83920.0052 0.8600 0.9534
SIDO0 1452 final submission 1024/4932 ** 0.6516 0.94320.0074 0.9443 0.9467
SIDO1 1452 final submission 4096/4932 ** 0.5685 0.75230.0137 0.7532 0.7893 0.7730 2
SIDO2 1452 final submission 2048/4932 ** 0.5685 0.62350.0129 0.6684 0.7674
CINA0 1452 final submission 64/132 ** 0.6000 0.97150.0032 0.9788 0.9788
CINA1 1452 final submission 64/132 ** 0.7053 0.84460.0047 0.8977 0.8977 0.8773 1
CINA2 1452 final submission 4/132 ** 0.7053 0.81570.0052 0.8157 0.8910
MARTI0 1452 final submission 256/1024 ** 0.8073 0.99140.0025 0.9996 0.9996
MARTI1 1452 final submission 256/1024 ** 0.7279 0.92090.0045 0.9470 0.9542 0.8910 3
MARTI2 1452 final submission 2/1024 ** 0.9897 0.76060.0062 0.7975 0.8273

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