Report for Gavin Cawley

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Figure 1: Performance as a function of the number of features. (Click to enlarge). Legend: red: REGED, green: SIDO, blue: CINA, black: MARTI. circle: version 1 (unmanipulated test set), full circle: version 2 (manipulated), star: version 3 (manipulated)

Figure 2: Profile of features selected. (Click to enlarge). Legend: dcause=direct cause, deffect=direct effects, ocauses=other causes (indirect), oeffects=other effects (indirect), spouses=parent of a direct effect, orelatives=other relatives, unrelated=completely irrelevant

Figure 3: Tscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

Figure 4: Fscore of all entries made as a function of entry order. (Click to enlarge). The dashed lines indicate the 25 and 50 percentiles.

Performances:
Fnum=number of features (*=sorted list, **=table of results. Fnum given for best Tscore if table of results submitted), Fscore=MB AUC, Tscore=AUC of test predictions; Top Ts=best score among all valid last entries made by participants. Max Ts=best score reachable, including reference entries using the knowledge of true causal relationships not available to participants.
* Entry Method Fnum Fscore Tscore (Ts) Top Ts Max Ts <Tscore> Rank

REGED0 1373 final models 128/999 ** 0.9410 0.9997±0.0012 1.0000 1.0000

REGED1 1373 final models 32/999 ** 0.8393 0.9787±0.0036 0.9980 0.9980 0.9276 2

REGED2 1373 final models 8/999 ** 0.9985 0.8045±0.0056 0.8600 0.9534

SIDO0 1373 final models 4928/4932 ** 0.5890 0.9427±0.0070 0.9443 0.9467

SIDO1 1373 final models 4928/4932 ** 0.5314 0.7532±0.0137 0.7532 0.7893 0.7881 1

SIDO2 1373 final models 4928/4932 ** 0.5314 0.6684±0.0130 0.6684 0.7674

CINA0 1373 final models 128/132 ** 0.5166 0.9743±0.0031 0.9788 0.9788

CINA1 1373 final models 128/132 ** 0.5860 0.8691±0.0046 0.8977 0.8977 0.8488 3

CINA2 1373 final models 64/132 ** 0.5860 0.7031±0.0047 0.8157 0.8910

MARTI0 1373 final models 128/1024 ** 0.8697 0.9996±0.0012 0.9996 0.9996

MARTI1 1373 final models 32/1024 ** 0.8064 0.9470±0.0039 0.9470 0.9542 0.9147 1

MARTI2 1373 final models 64/1024 ** 0.9956 0.7975±0.0059 0.7975 0.8273

*	Entry	Method	Fnum	Fscore	Tscore (Ts)	Top Ts	Max Ts	<Tscore>	Rank
REGED0	1373	final models	128/999 **	0.9410	0.9997±0.0012	1.0000	1.0000
REGED1	1373	final models	32/999 **	0.8393	0.9787±0.0036	0.9980	0.9980	0.9276	2
REGED2	1373	final models	8/999 **	0.9985	0.8045±0.0056	0.8600	0.9534
SIDO0	1373	final models	4928/4932 **	0.5890	0.9427±0.0070	0.9443	0.9467
SIDO1	1373	final models	4928/4932 **	0.5314	0.7532±0.0137	0.7532	0.7893	0.7881	1
SIDO2	1373	final models	4928/4932 **	0.5314	0.6684±0.0130	0.6684	0.7674
CINA0	1373	final models	128/132 **	0.5166	0.9743±0.0031	0.9788	0.9788
CINA1	1373	final models	128/132 **	0.5860	0.8691±0.0046	0.8977	0.8977	0.8488	3
CINA2	1373	final models	64/132 **	0.5860	0.7031±0.0047	0.8157	0.8910
MARTI0	1373	final models	128/1024 **	0.8697	0.9996±0.0012	0.9996	0.9996
MARTI1	1373	final models	32/1024 **	0.8064	0.9470±0.0039	0.9470	0.9542	0.9147	1
MARTI2	1373	final models	64/1024 **	0.9956	0.7975±0.0059	0.7975	0.8273

Report for Gavin Cawley

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Performances:

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